Ans1:
Talks on Iran nuclear agreement can be trace back to “Geneva Agreement”2013 titled as “Joint Plan of Action” in which Iran agreed to roll back its nuclear programme in exchange of relief from sanctions imposed by UN.
Effect of Sanctions on Iran:
1. Oil exports reduced to half and decline in oil prices
2. High cost of oil production
3. Negative GDP growth
Effect of Iran Nuclear Agreement on India:
1. India can import crude oil from Iran without any restriction
2. Chabahar port: Strategic position of Chabahar port will help India to bypass Pakistan and it will also provide connectivity to Central Asia and Europe via International North South Transport Corridor which is shorter and less expensive than Suez Canal
3. Transaction for crude oil will be done in Indian rupees.
Effect on West Asia:
1. Sectarian war is predominant in West Asia which is divided into two power blocks: one block led by sunni dominated force of Saudi Arabia and other block led by shia dominated Iran
2. By imposing restriction on Iran nuclear programmes, it ensures that nuclear programme in Iran will be for peaceful purpose, this will lead to rise of another power block ie Saudi Arabia in West Asia
Ans2:
IMPACT ON WEST ASIA:
Any success in this deal would mean the success of diplomacy over military belligerence, avoiding huge human causalities and political crisis which happened in cases like Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. This has positive impacts to the world in general and West Asia in particular.
Though majority of the oil importing nations are free from supply gluts now thanks to the increase in oil supply, but there was a time when demand was very high than the supply which resulted in increase in oil prices. Oil prices would come down more, this is surely a relief as Iran can start exporting their oil without any major sanctions.
Iran's economy was crumbled because of the sanctions, any revival in this would have 2 cascading effects:
a. Growth of Iranian economy which would have great impact on the poverty and increase in livelihood opportunities. This acts as a barrier from the country slipping towards the terrorist activities,
b. Revival of the economy increases the scope economic transactions with Iran's neighboring nations, which can possibly act as an intervention in support of other initiatives to counter strategies of ISIS.
On the negative side, the friction of Iran with Israel and Saudi Arabia is bound to rise, as Iran will be back on the growth track which both these countries perceive as an eminent threat.
Though the outcomes of the nuclear negotiations are yet to come, any action on part of Israel and Saudi Arabia are dependent on these outcomes.
IMPACT ON INDIA:
India can increase it's quantum of oil import from Iran, as Iran accepts Indian rupee. This would relieve stress on Forex reserves. But it needs to be seen whether Iran still continues with Indian rupee after the sanctions are lifted.
Stable hold for India in West Asia is very important, strengthening of Iran would strengthen the initiative of Chahbahar port which is gate way to the Central and West Asia.
To conclude, it is Iran's best interest for the revival of their economy and any activities to undermine the whole process will remain as a blot on the trust of West Asia with rest of the world.
Talks on Iran nuclear agreement can be trace back to “Geneva Agreement”2013 titled as “Joint Plan of Action” in which Iran agreed to roll back its nuclear programme in exchange of relief from sanctions imposed by UN.
Effect of Sanctions on Iran:
1. Oil exports reduced to half and decline in oil prices
2. High cost of oil production
3. Negative GDP growth
Effect of Iran Nuclear Agreement on India:
1. India can import crude oil from Iran without any restriction
2. Chabahar port: Strategic position of Chabahar port will help India to bypass Pakistan and it will also provide connectivity to Central Asia and Europe via International North South Transport Corridor which is shorter and less expensive than Suez Canal
3. Transaction for crude oil will be done in Indian rupees.
Effect on West Asia:
1. Sectarian war is predominant in West Asia which is divided into two power blocks: one block led by sunni dominated force of Saudi Arabia and other block led by shia dominated Iran
2. By imposing restriction on Iran nuclear programmes, it ensures that nuclear programme in Iran will be for peaceful purpose, this will lead to rise of another power block ie Saudi Arabia in West Asia
Ans2:
IMPACT ON WEST ASIA:
Any success in this deal would mean the success of diplomacy over military belligerence, avoiding huge human causalities and political crisis which happened in cases like Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. This has positive impacts to the world in general and West Asia in particular.
Though majority of the oil importing nations are free from supply gluts now thanks to the increase in oil supply, but there was a time when demand was very high than the supply which resulted in increase in oil prices. Oil prices would come down more, this is surely a relief as Iran can start exporting their oil without any major sanctions.
Iran's economy was crumbled because of the sanctions, any revival in this would have 2 cascading effects:
a. Growth of Iranian economy which would have great impact on the poverty and increase in livelihood opportunities. This acts as a barrier from the country slipping towards the terrorist activities,
b. Revival of the economy increases the scope economic transactions with Iran's neighboring nations, which can possibly act as an intervention in support of other initiatives to counter strategies of ISIS.
On the negative side, the friction of Iran with Israel and Saudi Arabia is bound to rise, as Iran will be back on the growth track which both these countries perceive as an eminent threat.
Though the outcomes of the nuclear negotiations are yet to come, any action on part of Israel and Saudi Arabia are dependent on these outcomes.
IMPACT ON INDIA:
India can increase it's quantum of oil import from Iran, as Iran accepts Indian rupee. This would relieve stress on Forex reserves. But it needs to be seen whether Iran still continues with Indian rupee after the sanctions are lifted.
Stable hold for India in West Asia is very important, strengthening of Iran would strengthen the initiative of Chahbahar port which is gate way to the Central and West Asia.
To conclude, it is Iran's best interest for the revival of their economy and any activities to undermine the whole process will remain as a blot on the trust of West Asia with rest of the world.
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